Egypt's population has rapidly increased since the beginning of the twentieth century. This rapid increase reflects mainly both fertility and mortality. Here, a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze a time series of crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt for the time period 1992 - 2010 are derived. We used these predictions to get predicted values for Natural Increase Rate (NIR) for the time period 1992 - 2010. Needless to say: that these predictions are of great value for policy makers and workers in family planning field.
A. Hussein, Mounira. (1993). Time Series Analysis for Forecasting both Fertility and Mortality Levels in Egypt Until year 2010. المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة, 27(2), 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
MLA
Mounira A. Hussein. "Time Series Analysis for Forecasting both Fertility and Mortality Levels in Egypt Until year 2010", المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة, 27, 2, 1993, 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
HARVARD
A. Hussein, Mounira. (1993). 'Time Series Analysis for Forecasting both Fertility and Mortality Levels in Egypt Until year 2010', المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة, 27(2), pp. 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
VANCOUVER
A. Hussein, Mounira. Time Series Analysis for Forecasting both Fertility and Mortality Levels in Egypt Until year 2010. المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة, 1993; 27(2): 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
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