Egypt's population has rapidly increased since the beginning of the twentieth century. This rapid increase reflects mainly both fertility and mortality. Here, a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze a time series of crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt for the time period 1992 - 2010 are derived. We used these predictions to get predicted values for Natural Increase Rate (NIR) for the time period 1992 - 2010. Needless to say: that these predictions are of great value for policy makers and workers in family planning field.
. (1993). Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010. المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة, 27(2), 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
MLA
. "Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010". المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة, 27, 2, 1993, 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
HARVARD
. (1993). 'Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010', المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة, 27(2), pp. 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
VANCOUVER
. Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010. المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة, 1993; 27(2): 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
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