Natural Fertility and Associated Intermediate Variables in Some Arab Countries

The total fertility rate of 6.55 contrasts with the reported completed fertility of over 8 births for older women. This evidence implies more than a 20 percent decline in fertility. Fertility is highest at ages 25-29, probably reflecting a decline in the early pattern of marriage in Jordan.The lower TFR is due to a large extent to changes in early marriage and the proportions married. According to the Bongaarts index of proportion married, Cm, fertility in Jordan would be over 25 percent higher than it is if all women married at 15 and remained married throughout their reproductive years. In addition to the fertility reducing effect of changing nuptiality patterns, looking at fertility within marriage suggests declines. Comparing marital fertility in Jordan with a standard schedule of natural fertility populations indicates that woman between ages 25 and 39 have almost 25 percent less fertility than the standard. Younger women similarly seem to be reducing fertility. This phenomenon is reflected in the relatively high rates of contraceptive knowledge and use recorded in the 1972 Fertility Survey. Although Jordan may be on the threshold of rapid fertility declines, it should be stressed that current rates are still very high and rapid population growth is in store for the country in the years ahead. Additional analysis of demographic data is needed before policy implications of the current fertility patterns can be discussed in a definitive way. However, given the incipient fertility decline indicated, and the high knowledge and approval of contraception in spite of the fact that there is no national family program and only minor private initiatives, reasonable hypothesis is that efforts at improving contraceptive services among women in Jordan might have a dramatic impact on accelerating fertility reduction in the immediate future.