Our main objective was to trace the past trends in the population aging in Egypt and to investigate the possible future trends under alternative assumptions. Regarding the past trends, the age composition of Egypt had a rather stable shape, particularly through the period 1917-1947. Also, the aging measures were settled at certain levels with minor fluctuations. The only remarkable change was recorded at the 1960 census, which was characterized by a larger proportion of young people and a smaller proportion of old people. That yielded a population somewhat Future trends show different variations according to the assumptions exercised. Five alternative assumptions were used constituting different possible changes in the schedules of mortality and fertility relative to their levels in 1960. It has been shown that a single decline in mortality levels has a minor effect on age composition of the Egyptian population. A small amount of decrease in the proportion of young people and a small amount of increase in the proportion of those at older ages were noticed. On the other hand, the case of declining fertility showed larger changes in the age composition than those recorded in the case of declining mortality and in an opposite direction. The manipulation of a simultaneous decline in both fertility and mortality was an indicative example of not only the combined effect of the two schedules on the age composition, but also the effect of each of them separately. Generally, a reduction in fertility has caused the population of Egypt to become older, while reduced mortality, with its opposite effect has prevented it from becoming much older. When mortality and fertility conditions were fixed at their levels of 1960, we did not observe any significant changes in the relative age distribution. The differences between the levels at successive time points were negligible. At last, the more notable change in the Egyptian age composition occurred in the case of producing NRR = 1. The proportion of individuals at young ages was at its lowest level, while that of people at other ages was at its highest level. This was mainly due to the larger amount of reduction in fertility levels maintained in this case rather in other cases.
)
مشاهدة على SCiNiTO